The Main Contenders
Bolton hold a sprint start over the rest and they hold a commanding 6 point lead over us. They also might still think they have a chance of finishing in the top 4, albeit slim. Bolton did the double over us this season and how costly will those 6 points be come May?
There is some good news though as Bolton still have some very tough fixtures coming up in the form of Spurs, Man United, Arsenal and Chelsea all away from home. They still have to play Reading and Everton too so it's possible we can catch them up, despite being beaten by them twice.
Reading have surprised everyone in the league and continue to play fluid, attacking football with near enough the same side that walked the Championship last season. The Royals are currently 2 points ahead us but still have to go to the Emirates and the Reebok and have to play Liverpool at home but more importantly we still have to go there and no doubt the result there will have a massive bearing on where both teams finish in the league.
Everton are still two points behind us after losing tonight and still have to go to Stamford Bridge on the last day whilst Man United and Arsenal still have to go to Goodison Park as do Pompey who travel to Merseyside for the Toffee's final home game of the season and it could be a big one.
Finally, Pompey sit on 41 points with 5 home games left. Four of those against the "big 4" and the other against a side we have never beaten; Newcastle United. Our away games could go either way too with the biggest ones against Reading and Everton which I feel we must take something from if we are to achieve a top 6 finish.
Our next game is against Blackburn, who have injury problems and seem to be more focused on the cup competitions having forced an FA Cup replay against Arsenal and hoping to turnaround a 3-2 deficit against Leverkusen in the UEFA Cup tomorrow. Their situation reminds me a bit like West Ham's last season when we went to Upton Park and won 4-2 and I'm cautiously optimistic we can go to Ewood Park and win, unlike other Pompey fans who seem to think Sunday's game is an inevitable defeat.
The other three games are against Watford; who look down and out after drawing with Wigan tonight, Villa, who always beat us at Villa Park and Fulham who are always a difficult proposition at Craven Cottage.
The Outsiders
Newcastle and Tottenham are both on 36 points. Spurs hadn't won in the league since Boxing Day before tonight and in my opinion they will look to focus on the FA and UEFA Cups and so the threat they will pose to the UEFA Cup places in the league will be minimal. The Geordies are in better form though and they might need keeping an eye on if we continue to squander our own chances, and we still have to play them at home.
The only other club who realistically can make a challenge for the UEFA Cup places is Blackburn who currently have 34 points. Should we beat them on Sunday then I think they will be effectively out of the running but defeat in Lancashire and we will have to look over our shoulders even more.
Overall, I am in the belief that 60 points will be good enough for the top 6 this season. That means we have to find 19 points from our last eleven games, meaning we'd have to either win 6 and draw 1 or win 5 and draw 4. It looks like we face an uphill battle considering the fixtures we have left but it's by no means impossible. Newcastle, Arsenal and Chelsea are going to have to be beaten by us sooner or later.
But it's not like we even have to win this race. A silver medal will do just fine!